Sunflower Seeds: Slow Ukrainian Sowing & Booming Turkish Demand, Inside Ukraine, USA and Global Sunflower Seeds Market!
 

Turkey’s record import spree, an EU production jump of 16 %, and Argentina’s biggest crop ever collide with tight U.S. inventories and slow Ukrainian sowing—reshuffling every price deck in the sunflower complex.

1. Latest Market Updates & News
 

May 7 – Turkey turns mega‑buyer. Customs data show Turkish imports of sunflower seed in Q1 2025 rocketed 4.3 × to 396 000 t, led by arrivals from Romania and Moldova. Oil imports reached 308 000 t, mainly Russian and Ukrainian origin, while Turkey still exported 186 000 t of refined oil to North Africa, the Middle East and the EU, keeping regional balances taut.
 

May 6 – Inner Mongolia prices soften. In China’s largest domestic hub, mixed‑grade seed with 1–2 % internal mould traded USD 1.35‑1.50 / kg, as warmer weather slowed demand and turned the spot market into a buyer’s arena.
 

May 1 – U.S. acreage rebounds 49 %. Farmers intend to plant 1.07 million acres (433 000 ha) of sunflowers in 2025, with North Dakota oil‑type sowings up 62 %. Yet total March 1 stocks were just 564 million lb (‑52 % y/y), underlining how tight the pipeline remains.
 

Apr 30 – EU lifts 2025 crop outlook. Brussels now pegs EU‑27 output at 9.669 million t (+16.6 % y/y). Romania could surge almost 50 % to 2.23 Mt, Bulgaria +16 % and France +22 %. Hungary is the lone decliner (‑1.4 %).
 

Apr 30 – Russia tweaks export duties. Moscow cut the May duty on crude sunflower oil, but raised the meal levy—marginally easing FOB offers yet preserving seed‑oil processing margins.
 

Apr 29 – Argentina hails record harvest. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lifted its estimate a second straight week to 4.7 million t, a 22 % jump y/y and 0.5 Mt above USDA. FOB Up‑River oil offers slipped to USD 1 115‑1 125 / t, pressuring Black Sea values.
 

Apr 22 – Ukraine’s oil exports race to records. Early‑April shipments were 10 % higher month‑on‑month; yet raw‑seed prices climbed as crushers fought for limited high‑oil seed, raising Ukrainian farmgate bids another 100‑300 UAH/t to roughly USD 680‑740 / t CPT works.
 

2. Global Production Status
 

• European Union: Ample soil moisture and expanded area push projected output to 9.67 Mt. Romania leads growth, while Hungary’s slight cut reflects crop rotation limits. Harvest kicks off late August.
   
• Ukraine: Only 1.24 million ha sown by late April—about one‑quarter of normal pace—amid wet, cool weather and strained logistics. Farmers still target 5 million ha, but lateness risks yield drag.
   
• Russia: Spring fieldwork in Tatarstan and the Volga is 30 % complete; the federal outlook remains ~15 Mt, but processors complain of seed costs outrunning oil prices, squeezing crush margins.
   
• Argentina: The drought‑bust year gifts record yields; 2024/25 exports may pass 1.15 Mt of oil, making Argentina a price‑setter for the Southern Hemisphere window (May‑July loadings).
   
• Kazakhstan: Government subsidies lift sunflower area toward 1.4 million ha. New crush plants targeting China and Afghanistan create regional competition for Black Sea oil.
   
• United States: Planting insurance deadlines loom (late June in ND/SD); a mild spring favours timely sowing. Bonus payments of 2 % per 1 % oil above 40 % keep high‑oleic contracts popular.
  
   

3. Trade Flows, Exporters and Importers
 

• Turkey has become the world’s largest spot importer so far in 2025, vacuuming seed from Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria and oil from Russia & Ukraine to offset domestic shortages.
   
• EU‑27 remains a net importer of crude oil even with bigger seed crops; Spain’s refineries rely heavily on Ukrainian shipments through Black Sea grain‑corridor routes or Adriatic diversions.
   
• India stays price‑sensitive, switching into palm when its discount tops USD 50/t over sunflower oil, but short stocks in May–June force periodic buying spurts.
   
• China accelerated April purchases of Ukrainian oil ahead of possible new U.S. tariffs on Russian veg‑oils, while also testing Argentine cargoes on price.
   

4. Product Quality, Harvest Timing & Characteristics

Black‑striped bird‑feed seeds in Germany average 45 % oil and retail USD 0.50 / kg ex‑warehouse. Hulled bakery kernels:
 

• Bulgaria 99.99 %: USD 1.50 / kg
• China confection 99.95 %: USD 1.66 / kg
• Ukraine 99.98 % bakery: USD 1.07 / kg
• Moldova 99.95 % bakery: USD 1.07 / kg
   

Inner‑Mongolia grades under 230‑g TKW fetch USD 1.35‑1.50 / kg but mould discounting is strict. Argentinian new‑crop oil tests at 45‑46 % linoleic content; EU crushers prize high oleic (> 80 %) contracts from France and Spain, paying USD 60/t premiums over standard.
 

5. Prices Now (FOB or CPT, May 2025)
 

• Ukrainian sunflower seed (49‑51 % oil) CPT crusher: USD 680‑740 / t
• EU Black Sea ports 50 % oil seed: USD 640‑660 / t FOB
• Argentine crude oil Up‑River: USD 1 115‑1 125 / t FOB
• Russian crude oil deep‑sea: USD 1 100‑1 115 / t FOB
• Ukrainian crude oil Chornomorsk: USD 1 135‑1 145 / t FOB (China‑driven premium)
   

6. Market Analysis & Fundamental Signals
 

• Inventory tightness vs. acreage surge. EU and U.S. area gains promise larger late‑2025 supply, yet Q2 stocks are historically low (U.S. ‑52 %, Ukraine crushers hand‑to‑mouth).
   
• Oilseed arbitrage. Palm’s 2.4 % daily drop (to USD 908 / t) widens its discount to sunflower oil (~ USD 200 / t), capping sunflower upside in price‑sensitive India and Egypt.
   
• Currency watch. Stable TRY and firm ruble keep Black Sea FOB prices driven by seed fundamentals, not FX. A stronger euro versus dollar raises EU crush margins on export sales.
   
• Logistics & geopolitics. Odessa port interruptions, Black Sea naval checks, and Russia’s periodic export‑duty tweaks inject freight risk premia of USD 15‑25 / t on Ukrainian parcels.
   

7. Tariff & Policy Landscape
 

• Russia recalibrated May export duties: crude oil €188.1/t to €184 / t; meal up €1.
   
• United States mulls broader 10 % reciprocation duties on Russian‑origin veg‑oils; traders pre‑emptively shift to Argentine and EU cargoes.
   
• Kazakhstan maintains zero seed‑export duty to feed new domestic crushers—potentially limiting raw‑seed availability for China.
   
• Turkey keeps a reduced 5 % import tariff on sunflower oil under inward‑processing regimes, supporting refinery throughput.
   

8. Future Trends & Three‑Month Outlook
 

• Seed prices likely drift sideways (USD 620‑700 / t Black Sea) until clearer acreage/emergence data in June. Upside risk is weather: a hot, dry June in Ukraine could ignite a summer rally.
   
• Crude oil values face pressure from record Argentine availabilities in May‑July and rising Malaysian palm stocks, but floor at USD 1 050 / t FOB seems firm given tight EU and U.S. inventories.
   
• Kernel premiums (bakery vs. bird‑feed) will stay wide (> USD 0.40/kg) as confection demand in the Middle East and Korea recovers post‑Ramadan.
   

9. Strategic Recommendations
 

• Buyers – Cover Q3 needs now, especially high‑oleic grades, before Argentine competition wanes and EU weather risk peaks.
   
• Sellers/Crushers – Lock in oil‑to‑seed spreads via paper hedging; current crush margin Black Sea ≈ USD 70 / t is vulnerable to seed‑cost spikes.
   
• Traders – Watch Romania‑to‑Turkey flows; any phytosanitary hiccup could reopen premium lanes for Bulgarian or Moldovan seed.
   
• Investors – Monitor North Dakota planting progress and U.S. biodiesel policy; a mandate tweak could pull sunflower oil into renewable diesel, tightening edibles balance.
   

10. Additional & Complementary Updates
 

• Sunflower oil weekly (W17): Stable month‑on‑month prices hide divergent producer fortunes—Russia’s processors face funding strain, while Ukraine shifts spare capacity to soybeans.
   
• Palm‑oil linkage: April’s 12 % YTD palm decline narrows sunflower’s competitive band; if soy‑oil futures retreat on smooth U.S. sowing, sunflower oil could retest USD 1 050.
   
• Grain‑oilseed acreage parity in Ukraine: USDA sees sunflowers, soy and rapeseed area matching cereals by 2025/26—long‑term sign of sustained oilseed dominance.
   
• Tatarstan sowing mix: 90 000 ha sunflower (34 % of plan) underlines Russia’s pivot from barley/wheat into higher‑margin oilseeds.
   
• Kazakhstan’s degraded lands: 29.9 million ha saline risk underscores why subsidies are steering farmers toward drought‑tolerant sunflowers.
   

Conclusion
 

The 2025 sunflower season is a tug‑of‑war between booming acreage and razor‑thin short‑term inventories. Turkey’s record import binge, Argentina’s bumper crop and the EU’s optimistic forecast suggest relief ahead, yet slow Ukrainian sowing, tight U.S. stocks and logistical snarls keep prices underpinned. Weather in June‑July and policy shocks—especially on Russian duties or U.S. tariffs—will decide whether sunflower oil drifts lower with palm or snaps higher on fresh supply scares. Stakeholders who balance near‑term cover with flexible forward options will ride out what promises to be another volatile oilseed year.

FAQ
 

What is the current price of sunflower seed and oil in May 2025?
Black‑Sea 50 % oil sunflower seed trades around USD 640‑700 per tonne FOB, while crude sunflower oil is USD 1 100‑1 150 per tonne FOB depending on origin (Argentina at the low end, Ukraine at the high end).
 

Why have Turkey’s sunflower imports quadrupled in 2025?
A domestic seed short‑fall pushed Turkish crushers to buy 396 000 t of seed (4.3 × y/y) from Romania and Moldova and 308 000 t of oil from Russia and Ukraine to keep refineries running and meet strong Middle‑East demand.
 

Is the European Union really headed for a record sunflower crop?
Yes. The European Commission now forecasts 9.67 million t for 2025—up 16.6 % from 2024—thanks to bigger area and good spring moisture in Romania, Bulgaria and France.
 

How will Argentina’s record 4.7 Mt harvest affect global prices?
Extra Argentine supply (up 22 % y/y) has already nudged FOB Up‑River oil offers down to USD 1 115 / t and is expected to cap world prices through July, especially if palm and soybean oil stay weak.
 

What is happening with U.S. sunflower acreage and inventories?
Farmers plan to sow 1.07 million acres in 2025, a 49 % rebound from last year’s record low, because March 1 stocks plunged 52 % year‑on‑year and new‑crop contracts include oil‑content bonuses.
 

Will sunflower oil prices fall later in 2025?
A price dip is possible after the Northern‑Hemisphere harvest if EU and Ukrainian yields match expectations, but short‑term tight stocks and any Black Sea logistics hiccups could still send prices back above USD 1 200 / t.
 

How do Russian export duties impact the sunflower market?
Russia cut its May crude‑oil duty but raised the meal levy, lowering FOB oil offers by roughly USD 5 / t. Future duty tweaks remain a key swing factor for global price direction.
 

What weather risks should buyers watch this season?
June heat in Ukraine and southern Russia could stress late‑planted fields; likewise, North Dakota sunflowers must be seeded before late‑June insurance deadlines. A hot, dry spell in either region would tighten 2025/26 supply and lift prices.