The global sunflower seed market in 2024 reflects a dynamic landscape shaped by higher-than-expected production, price volatility, and shifting trade policies. As key players like Ukraine, Russia, and Spain adjust to a changing agricultural environment, global demand for sunflower seeds and oil remains robust. This report delves into the latest production trends, trade movements, pricing, and regional market developments to provide a comprehensive analysis of the industry's current state and future outlook.
Production Highlights: Ukraine and Russia Drive Growth
Ukraine
Ukraine remains a pivotal force in the global sunflower seed market, with production forecasts raised by 1.9% to 16.3 million metric tons (MT). While sunflower oil prices in Ukraine are slightly lower than in previous months, they remain higher than last year's levels. With tight supply and strong demand, cautious adjustments in raw material purchase prices have been observed, ranging from 24,700–26,000 UAH/ton.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy has implemented minimum pricing on key agricultural exports, including sunflower seeds and oils, for December 2024. This regulatory move is aimed at stabilizing the market amidst volatile export dynamics.
Russia
Russia, the world's largest sunflower seed producer, has also exceeded expectations. Favorable conditions have driven a 41% price increase in sunflower oil, making it Russia’s most expensive raw material commodity this year. However, rising export duties—jumping from USD 28.18/ton in November to USD 84.55/ton in December—are expected to temper price increases in the coming months.
Spain
Spain’s sunflower production is projected to remain steady at 767,000 hectares, with the majority of cultivation concentrated in Castilla y León, Andalusia, and Castilla-La Mancha. However, insufficient winter rainfall has dampened yields, creating tighter supplies. Sunflower oil prices in Spain range between 430–475 euros/ton, with high-oleic variants commanding premiums of 470–575 euros/ton.
Trade and Export Trends: Shifting Dynamics
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is emerging as a significant player, securing sunflower oil export contracts worth USD 26 million at international expos and forums. Investments in oil milling infrastructure, such as the Altai May mill, are expected to boost production capacity by 25%, further positioning Kazakhstan as a key regional supplier.
Turkey
To stabilize domestic markets, Turkey has announced the elimination of its 8% import duty on crude sunflower seeds from January to April 2025, while maintaining a 20% duty on unrefined sunflower oil.
Ukraine’s Export Policies
The Ukrainian government’s export pricing policies are designed to ensure competitive pricing in global markets while safeguarding domestic producers from volatile market conditions.
Price Dynamics: A Balancing Act
Global sunflower oil prices have shown mixed trends. In Ukraine, prices have slightly decreased due to a more abundant local supply, though they remain higher than the previous year. Meanwhile, Russia’s market shows contrasting movements, with price growth earlier in the year now moderating due to higher export duties. Spain, grappling with lower-than-expected yields, has seen its prices influenced by competition from other oils, including canola and palm oil.
Emerging Trends and Market Insights
Outlook for 2025
The sunflower seed market is poised for continued growth, though key challenges such as climate variability, trade regulations, and input cost inflation persist. As global production centers adjust their strategies, the industry’s ability to meet growing demand for sunflower seeds and oils will depend on innovation, sustainability, and agile trade policies.
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