Global Peanut Market: India’s Oversupply, Brazil’s Record Harvest, and U.S. Quality Trends Shaping Trade Dynamics

The peanut industry is undergoing significant changes in 2024, shaped by fluctuating production, trade dynamics, and shifting global demand. With leading producers like India, Brazil, and the U.S. navigating market pressures, traders and exporters are keenly watching the evolving landscape. Here’s a comprehensive analysis of the peanut market, including production updates, pricing trends, and strategies for navigating challenges in this crucial sector.
 

Production Updates: Key Players and Harvest Timelines

1. India
   • Bumper Crop & Price Lows: India recorded a large peanut harvest in 2024, but prices fell to a five-year low of $0.66/kg due to oversupply and reduced demand from China.
   • Government Intervention: The Indian government has started procurement, but slow progress has led to reduced arrivals at local markets.
   • Rabi Season Outlook: 66% of the targeted peanut area for the Rabi season has been sown, with favorable conditions supporting recovery from previous losses.
     
      
2. Brazil
   • Record Production Forecast: Brazil expects a record production of 832,300 MT for 2024/25, which may pressure prices due to oversupply. Current peanut prices stand at $3.19/kg.
   • Diversified Demand: Brazilian peanuts are gaining traction in export markets, including Egypt’s halal food sector.
     
      
3. United States
   • Stable Harvest Progress: The U.S. peanut harvest has reached 93% of the expected area. Dry conditions in some regions may slightly affect yields, but overall results are promising.
   • Expanding Acreage: Mississippi reported a 30% YoY increase in peanut acreage, signaling growth in production capacity.
     
      
4. Argentina
   • Peanut Complex Growth: The peanut complex contributed significantly to Argentina’s exports in 2024, with $1.004 billion in trade revenue, making peanuts the most exported product in the Córdoba region.
     
      
5. China
   • Shift in Trade Dynamics: Chinese imports of peanuts from India have declined due to 28% tariffs, prompting a pivot to Brazil for supply. Peanut imports from Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries fell by 22.4% in 2024.
     
      
6. Gambia
   • Climate Challenges: Prolonged drought has led to poor yields, prompting President Adama Barrow to advocate for crop diversification, including cashews and cotton, to stabilize agricultural income.
     
      

Global Trade Trends
 

• China: While reducing imports from India, China remains a major peanut importer, sourcing from Brazil and expanding trade ties with Tajikistan for agricultural products.
• Europe: Europe remains a lucrative market for peanut exports, with the Netherlands leading as the top buyer. Argentine peanuts dominate the region, accounting for 37.4% of total exports to the continent.
• UAE’s Role: The UAE continues to serve as a strategic re-export hub, connecting Asian suppliers with African and European markets.
  
   

Pricing Trends and Market Challenges
 

1. Current Prices
   • India: $0.66–$0.68/kg, reflecting oversupply and weak export demand.
   • Brazil: $3.19/kg, with upward pressure due to export demand but potential declines from record production.
      
2. Challenges
   • High Tariffs: India faces reduced export potential to China due to steep duties.
   • Climate Impact: Prolonged droughts in regions like Gambia and dry conditions in the U.S. highlight the sector’s vulnerability.
   • Trade Shifts: The U.S.-China trade tensions continue to influence global peanut flows, pushing exporters to diversify.
     
      

Future Outlook
 

1. Rising Demand
   • Healthy Snacks: Global consumer interest in peanuts as a protein-rich, affordable snack continues to grow, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe.
   • Halal Markets: Brazil’s push into halal-certified products highlights the potential for growth in Middle Eastern and African markets.
      
2. Production Recovery
   • Countries like India and the U.S. are leveraging favorable conditions to recover from prior losses, while Brazil’s diversification efforts ensure consistent supply.
      
3. Sustainability Focus
   • Governments and organizations are emphasizing climate resilience and crop diversification to mitigate risks from extreme weather events.
      

Tips for Traders
 

1. Diversify Sourcing: Expand supplier networks to include Brazil and Argentina to hedge against market volatility.
2. Monitor Tariff Changes: Stay informed about trade policies, particularly between India and China, to identify new opportunities.
3. Invest in Storage: Leverage low prices during harvest seasons to stockpile and sell during demand peaks.
4. Leverage Technology: Use platforms like Momex for real-time pricing insights, verified supplier connections, and seamless trade operations.
5. Target Emerging Markets: Explore growing demand in halal-certified markets and health-conscious regions.

FAQs
 

Q1: Why are peanut prices low in India?
Oversupply from a large harvest and reduced demand from China have driven prices to a five-year low of $0.66/kg.
 

Q2: Which countries are the top peanut producers?
India, the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina lead global peanut production.
 

Q3: How has climate change affected peanut yields?
Droughts in regions like Gambia and dry conditions in the U.S. have impacted yields, emphasizing the need for resilient farming practices.
 

Q4: Why is Brazil emerging as a key exporter?
Brazil’s record production and diversification into halal-certified markets have boosted its global export potential.
 

Q5: How can UAE traders capitalize on the peanut market?
UAE traders can leverage the country’s role as a re-export hub, sourcing from key producers and targeting growing markets in Asia and Africa.
 

Q6: How does Momex support peanut traders?
Momex provides tools for live price tracking, supplier verification, and streamlined trade management, ensuring efficient and profitable transactions.
 

Conclusion

The global peanut market in 2024 reflects a dynamic interplay of production shifts, trade adjustments, and pricing fluctuations. For traders, the opportunities lie in diversifying sourcing, targeting premium markets, and leveraging technology for smarter decisions. By staying informed and agile, businesses can navigate challenges and tap into the immense potential of the peanut industry.

Partner with Momex today for expert insights and seamless trading solutions!