EU Slaps 25 % Duty on U.S. Almonds—Spanish Growers Cheer, Australia Warns Crop Could Plunge 20 %, California Rushes to Ship Before December!

Latest Market Updates & News
 

Early May delivered a blizzard of headline-makers. California set an all-time April export record of 187.8 million lbs on the back of ravenous Indian demand, even as U.S. domestic shipments slipped to an eight-year low. In Spain, a freak hailstorm shredded up to USD 3.4 million worth of Valencian orchards just as growers were celebrating a 21 % jump in season-to-date exports. Australia started its 2025/26 marketing year with 6 000 t of shipments—only the second-best March on record, yet impressive given a forecast 10–20 % production drop caused by heat, drought and September frost.
 

Geopolitics is as loud as the weather. Brussels has confirmed a 25 % retaliatory duty on U.S. almond imports from 1 December 2025, a counter-strike against Washington’s steel and aluminium tariffs. Spanish growers wanted the levy in place for the 2025 nougat season; processors are relieved by the delay, U.S. sellers have a seven-month window to pre-position cargo. Meanwhile, a surprise U.S.–China mini-deal has cut the two-way tariff barrage to “just” 10 % for 90 days, and India’s border flare-up with Pakistan left some 30 Afghan-origin Mamra trucks stalled at Wagah-Attari, sending premium kernel offers through the roof.

Global Production Status – Who Grows What in 2025/26
 

• United States (California) remains the anchor at an expected 2.8 billion lbs (≈ 1.27 million t) – a 2.6 % recovery from last year, according to USDA’s 12 May subjective survey. Bearing acreage has plateaued around 1.39 million; orchard removals are slowing, yet water policy, bee health and last summer’s extreme heat are capping yield potential.
   
• Australia is bracing for 125 000–140 000 t after record heat shrivelled Nonpareil kernel weights; the Almond Board’s official midpoint is 155 500 t, still 10–20 % below what the trade had pencilled in. Barely 4 000 t of old-crop kernel inventory remains, the lowest in two decades.
   
• Spain is on a three-year growth streak: irrigated acreage has pushed expected 2025 deliveries to ≈ 122 000 t, up 17 % on 2024, though April hail shaved a few thousand tonnes off Valencia’s rain-fed groves.
   
• Turkey is steady at 30 000 t; frost in Kahramanmaraş and Adıyaman hit pockets of orchards but spared Gaziantep, the main belt.
   
• Iran forecasts 6 100 t kernel equivalent—small globally but critical for the prized Mamra niche.
   
• China, Chile, Greece together add a modest but fast-growing 44 000 t, as new super-high-density plantings mature.

Total world kernel production, the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) told its May congress, should rise 2 % to 1.675 million t, yet total available supplies are flat because Australian carry-in stocks have vanished.

Exporters, Importers & Trade Flows

• California still supplies roughly two-thirds of all exported almonds. April containers to India hit a record 1 447 boxes; season-to-date Indian purchases are only 4 % behind 2023/24 despite high prices. Western Europe (Spain, Netherlands, Italy) took a combined +10 % more U.S. almonds in April as buyers front-run the December EU tariff.
   
• Spain has quietly become the world’s second-largest shipper of value-added kernels, pushing 105 000 t abroad in just seven months. France remains its #1 customer, but the biggest percentage jump is Egypt (+201 %).
   
• Australia still sends half its crop to China and India. Even with Washington’s détente, Chinese confectioners called forward 1 964 t of new-crop Australian kernels in March—proof that origin diversification is now structural.
   
• MENA & Gulf markets (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) posted U.S.-import gains of 24–39 % year-on-year; premium Nonpareil SSR 27/30 is finding a home in Ramadan and Eid gift packs at prices well above EU levels.

Product Quality, Harvest Timing & Dollar Prices (mid-May 2025)

Spanish kernels lead the mainstream market for European roasters. Rain-fed Guara wholes in the 12/14 mm count are being quoted at about €6.10 per kilo, or roughly $6.65, a level that mirrors limited on-farm supply yet still sits well below Californian premiums.
 

For higher-end applications Europe is turning to irrigated Spanish Nonpareil SSR 27/30: offers have climbed to €11.70 per kilo—about $12.75—as buyers rush to cover needs before the EU’s 25 % duty on U.S. almonds lands in December.
 

California’s industrial workhorse, Carmel SSR 20/22, is trading near €6.85, or $7.45, per kilo CIF Mediterranean ports. A chronic shortage of small industrial grades has narrowed the traditional gap with top varieties to barely twenty-five cents a pound.
 

Top-quality Californian Nonpareil SSR 27/30 commands about €9.50 per kilo, or $10.40, buoyed by record Indian demand, low U.S. carry-in and the weaker dollar that has helped American shippers recapture Middle-East share.
 

At the ultra-premium end, Iranian Mamra grade-A kernels—favoured for gifting and high-end confectionery—have surged past €11.15 per kilo, or $12.20, as land-route congestion at the Wagah-Attari border and wedding-season buying squeeze a market that was already tight.
 

Harvest calendars diverge sharply: Australia finishes shelling by April, Spain and California shake trees from August through October, while Iran and Turkey do not start until September. That staggering of supply means each hemisphere’s weather scare has an almost immediate price echo on futures and spot markets worldwide.

Market Analysis & Fundamental Signals

1. Quality spread collapse – Industrial ST5 % pieces are now just $0.20–0.25/lb below top grades, the narrowest gap in twenty years, reflecting acute shortage of small kernels and aggressive buying for re-milling.
    
2. Tariff chessboard – Europe’s 25 % duty on U.S. almonds from December is already reshuffling trade. Spanish processors are stocking Californian origin early; U.S. handlers are reluctant to pre-sell January cargo lest the EU delay again.
    
3. Currency factor – A softer U.S. dollar (down 4 % vs. euro since March) has offset part of the EU duty premium and helped Californian sellers regain share in MENA.
    
4. Freight & Red Sea – East-bound container rates via Cape of Good Hope add $150–200/t on Middle-East deliveries; Australia benefits from shorter unaffected lanes to China and India.
    
5. Pest pressure – Abandoned orchards in California are breeding grounds for navel orangeworm; growers spraying adjacent blocks face higher costs that will feed into 2025/26 offers.
    

Near-Term Price Outlook (June–September 2025)

• U.S. Nonpareil SSR 27/30 likely to hover $10.00–10.75/kg FAS as handlers ration dwindling 2024 inventory until new crop arrives.
   
• Spanish irrigated Guara whole kernels should remain $6.50–6.90/kg FOB Valencia; hail damage risk tilts bias upward.
   
• Australian Nonpareil expected $8.00–8.50/kg CFR China given 20 % smaller crop and weak AUD boosting farmgate returns.
   
• Any confirmation of an EU-U.S. trade compromise before September would knock $0.50–0.70/kg off forward Californian quotes into Europe.
   

Tariffs & Trade Policy Watch

• EU counter-duty: 25 % on U.S. almonds effective 1 Dec 2025 unless wider metals dispute is settled.
   
• U.S.–China 90-day tariff pause: Almonds now face 10 % rather than 125 %; Chinese buyers may restock if the yuan stabilises.
   
• India import tariff remains a token INR 35/kg (≈ $0.42), but Washington’s broader tariff hike on Indian steel has no almond retaliation so far, keeping access smooth.
   
• Spain’s ASAJA lobbying Madrid to accelerate EU duty start to May 2025; unlikely but worth monitoring.

Strategic Guidance for Momex Clients
 

• Buyers – Cover Q3 needs quickly, especially for small pieces and Carmel SSR grades; consider switching part of EU demand to Spanish or Australian origin to hedge December duty.
   
• Sellers – Use the weak dollar window to lock Asian sales; delay large EU contracts until tariff clarity or price in a 25 % buffer.
   
• Investors / Position-takers – Track USDA Objective Estimate (July) and Australian shell-out data (September) for volatility triggers; quality premiums could widen further if Nonpareil kernel weight disappoints in either hemisphere.
   

Additional & Complementary Updates Not Yet Covered
 

• U.S. carry-out is projected at 550 million lbs, barely two months of global consumption—one of the tightest stock-to-use ratios since 2016.
   
• Chile is on track to double exports to 12 750 t; shipments are already flowing into Brazil and Peru, nibbling at U.S. market share in South America.
   
• Greece expects a one-third output jump to 8 000 t after record blossom set in Thessaly; most will stay in the EU.
   
• Climate hedge: Spain’s shift toward drip-irrigated super-high-density blocks (now 34 % of acreage) is raising average yields and improving calibre consistency—long-term bullish for Spanish competitiveness once water allocations stabilise.
   
• Logistics: Ongoing Red Sea detours are prompting some Gulf roasters to trial East-to-West rail from Qingdao to Tehran for Chinese and Australian kernels; early costs look competitive.
   

Conclusion
 

The almond market of mid-2025 is a tug-of-war between recovering supply in California, shrinking output in Australia, weather-boosted Spain and a web of looming tariffs. Tight kernel inventories, a collapsing quality discount and freight upheavals mean prices are firm now and will remain sensitive to every USDA survey, EU policy rumour and geopolitical headline. Stakeholders who diversify origins, lock in strategic cover early and keep a close eye on regulatory calendars will ride the volatility rather than be capsized by it.
 

FAQ Almond Market
 

1. Why are almond prices rising in mid-2025?
Prices are firm because California’s small-kernel inventory is tight, Spain lost orchards to hail, Australia expects a 10-20 % production drop, and buyers are front-loading purchases before the EU’s 25 % tariff on U.S. almonds takes effect on 1 December 2025.
 

2. How will the new EU tariff affect U.S. almond imports?
If the 25 % duty starts in December, European importers will pay roughly an extra $2.50 per kilo on U.S. Nonpareil. Many processors are already accelerating shipments to beat the deadline, which could cause a pre-tariff volume spike and a Q1 2026 lull.
 

3. What is the USDA’s 2025 almond crop forecast for California?
The USDA’s May subjective estimate pegs the 2025 California almond crop at 2.8 billion pounds—about 2.6 % larger than 2024—thanks to slightly higher bearing acres and yields of 2,010 lbs per acre.
 

4. Will Australia run out of exportable almonds this season?
Possibly. With carry-over stocks slashed to just 4,000 t and a weather-hit crop of as little as 125,000 t, Australian handlers warn that marketable inventory could vanish by early 2026 if demand from China and India stays strong.
 

5. Which countries are buying the most almonds in 2025?
India remains the world’s top importer, taking over 300 million lbs from California. Western Europe, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are close behind, while China is tentatively restocking after a temporary U.S.–China tariff truce reduced duties to 10 %.
 

6. What are current spot prices for popular almond grades?
Mid-May indications: California Nonpareil SSR 27/30 at ≈ $10.40/kg, Spanish Guara 12/14 at ≈ $6.65/kg, Australian Nonpareil around $8.25/kg CFR China, and Iranian Mamra grade A over $12.20/kg due to border delays and wedding-season demand.
 

7. When is almond harvest season in each origin?
Australia harvests February–April; Spain and California shake trees August–October; Iran, Turkey and much of the Mediterranean pick in September. This staggered calendar spreads supply risk but also means weather scares hit the market year-round.
 

8. How can buyers hedge almond price volatility?
Diversify origin mix (e.g., add Spanish and Australian kernels), negotiate long-term contracts before tariffs start, monitor U.S. crop estimates (July Objective Report), and watch currency moves—particularly the USD/EUR—because a weaker dollar tempers price spikes in Europe.
 

9. What quality issues should importers watch in 2025?
California’s abandoned orchards may raise navel orangeworm pressure; Australia reports low kernel moisture and weight after extreme heat; Spain’s rain-fed plots risk aflatoxin if late-season storms persist. Request up-to-date lab tests with each lot.
 

10. Could geopolitical events disrupt almond flows again?
Yes. Any reversal of the U.S.–China tariff pause, further India-Pakistan border tension affecting Afghan Mamra transit, or delayed EU-U.S. trade talks could jolt freight lanes and prices. Staying alert to policy headlines is as critical as tracking weather forecasts.